By Revel Pointon, Managing Lawyer, Policy and Law Reform
The Australian Government has just released its updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement, being 62%-70% emissions reduction on 2005 levels by 2035.
The Nationally Determined Contribution sets out the country’s commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate impacts.
Every five years, governments are required to submit progressively stronger targets that reflect the “highest possible ambition” and align with the global goal of limiting warming to well below 2°C, and preferably 1.5°C.
This updates Australia’s climate target, which has been sitting at 43% reduction on 2005 levels by 2030 and net zero by 2050.
The government has also today released a Net Zero Plan and various sector plans, which EDO will be analysing to see how effectively these plans will help Australia reach its targets.
On a preliminary review of the Net Zero Report, we raise concern that there continues to be no responsibility taken for Australia’s scope 3 emissions, meaning coal and gas projects can continue to operate and new projects approved.
Further, the plan proposes continued heavy reliance on offsets to address emissions and contemplates reliance on international carbon markets to contribute to emission reductions, even though there are serious questions as to the integrity of these markets.
At a time when real emissions reduction activity is needed across every sector to reduce the risks of increasingly dangerous climate impacts, the reliance on carbon offsets and continued support for coal and gas exports threatens undermining this needed work.
What the science says
The latest reports from the Australian Academy of Sciences and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (helpfully outlined by the Climate Council’s recent scientific analysis) are clear: to keep warming within 1.5°C, developed countries like Australia must reduce emissions by at least 75% below 2005 levels by 2030, and must reach net zero by 2035 to give the best possible opportunity to avert major disruption to Earth’s climate systems.
This new Nationally Determined Contribution falls far short of that trajectory. Instead, it risks locking us into dangerous levels of warming, with profound consequences for communities, ecosystems, and future generations.
International Court of Justice has clarified need for strong targets, including for scope 3 emissions reduction
In July 2025, the International Court of Justice delivered a historic advisory opinion, confirming that states have legal obligations under international law to take action consistent with keeping warming below 1.5°C.
For Australia, a wealthy developed nation and one of the world’s largest fossil fuel exporters, this means adopting and implementing emissions targets that reflect our fair share of the global carbon budget.
The opinion confirmed this includes taking into account our scope 3 emissions from the burning of fossil fuels we export.
Failing to do so is not only morally indefensible – it may also put Australia in breach of its international legal obligations.
As a high-income country with the technological and economic capacity to transition rapidly, Australia is expected to lead in efforts to reduce emissions.
Our reliance on fossil fuel exports and continued approvals for new coal and gas projects directly undermine the credibility of our commitments under the Paris Agreement.
Leadership requires aligning our targets with science, phasing out fossil fuels, and investing in well-planned renewable energy and restoration at scale.
What Australia’s own risk assessment shows
The government’s recently released National Climate Risk Assessment makes clear the risks we face across the nation:
- Increasing frequency and severity of heatwaves, bushfires, floods and droughts.
- Threats to food security, human health, water availability and biodiversity.
- Major economic costs and disruption to communities.
This assessment underscores that a weak Nationally Determined Contribution, such as as the one announced – one that is not aligned with the science or with the 1.5°C limit – leaves Australians exposed to increasingly escalating and irreversible harms.
It is inconsistent for the government to acknowledge these risks while failing to put forward targets that would ensure we are doing our best to mitigate them.
EDO’s position
Australia’s Nationally Determined Contribution must reflect what the science demands and what the law requires: an immediate, steep reduction in emissions in line with 1.5°C, and a clear plan to phase out coal, oil and gas.
Anything less risks breaching our international obligations, undermining global efforts, and failing people in Australia and globally who are already living with the impacts of climate change, particularly First Nations and Pacific Islanders who are at the forefront of climate destruction and displacement.
EDO has produced A Roadmap for Climate Reform that sets out the steps the government can take for an effective pathway forward to reducing Australia’s emissions.
